EEM - Weekly

Will Be Taking 5 Months Off, Will Be Back In May. Market Should Only Go Up Tell Then, Thanks To The Fed.

EEM

• New Bear Fork Forming
• Break below 45.60 WOULD BE BEARISH
• Up Trend holding Still In Play

GLD SLV USO - The Fed Train

GLD

• GLD Looking Very Strong (Thanks To The Fed)
• Break below 128 WOULD BE BEARISH
• Up Trend holding
• Looking for $1500 For Gold
• All About How Much The Fed Prints!

SLV

• SLV IS ON CRACK!
• Break below 24 WOULD BE BEARISH
• Up Trend holding
• Looking for 45+ In The Sliver Market

USO

• Nice Upward Fork Formed
• Break below 36.30 WOULD BE BEARISH
• Up Trend holding, Look For A Small Pull Back
• High Oil Prices NOT GOOD FOR THE RECOVERY
• $100+ Oil Here We Come!

Back To The Forks

SP-500

• New Bear Fork Forming
• 200 MDA @ 1189 Is What To Watch
• Break Above Bullish Break Below Bearish
• Most Likely Heading HIGHER! Thanks To QE2
• 1230 To 1300 New Targets

Update On SLV and SP-500

Forks Just Work!

SLV (Adjusted Fork)

• Close Below 22.50 would start to be bearish
• If the mid-line is broken, a top is most likely in for the medals (For the Moment)
• Wait for the Fed to PRINT MORE MONEY

SP-500 (Adjusted Fork)

• Looking like a top is in (WE WILL SEE)
• Close Below 1166.00 would start to be bearish
• If Fed does not print north of 500 billion (AGAIN) market will most likely sell off
• Even if the fed does bail the economy out again, as soon as they stop printing, it will get ugly!
• PRINTING MONEY BUYS TIME, DOES NOT FIX ANYTHING!

SLV & GLD

SLV - Weekly

• SLV Has Shot Straight Up
• Would Not Buy Here, But The Fed Is Printing Money 24/7
• Been Bullish For Some Time, But Time to Take Some Money Off The Table

GLD - Weekly

• GLD Has Shot Straight Up As Well
• Would Take Some Money Off The Table
• Market Could Turn Over Night, We Can Not Print Our Way Out of This!

GLD (Weekly) Bull Fork

Golden Bull

• Break Below The Medline Would Start To Be Bearish
• Looking For Gold to Peak Soon (If The Fed Stops QE)

SP-500 (Weekly) Mid Day Update

Top In?

• Break above 1164 would be a very bullish move and most likely go back to the highs of this year
• Next weeks economic reports will tell us if a top is in
• Wait to see if the fed prints more, if they do, NOT A TOP

Why GDP Is In Trouble

Looking Ahead

Chart From Dshort.com

• Can GDP Hold when the consumer is still hurting?
• Q3 and Q4 GDP will be much lower then the market is looking for according To CMI
• My Thoughts, the fed will off set this tell Q1 or Q2 of 2011 

SP-500 (Weekly) Mid Day Update

Bulls Are Back!

• Bulls Looking Strong
• Break Above 1150 would be very bullish
• Big bear fork has been broken, small bear fork still in play

SP-500 (Weekly) Update

Bear Hat (For The Moment)

• Large Bear Fork In Play
• Close Below 1080 Would Start To Be Bearish
• Close Above 1105 Would BE VERY BULLISH
• Watch European Bond Spreads, They Are At The Highs of May

SP-500 (Weekly) With LARGE Bear Fork In Play, Will It Hold?

• If Down Fork Breaks, Next Stop Would be Near 1150
• Jobs News Was Not As Bad As Expected But Is Still Getting Worse (See Chart Below)

*Chart is from Calculated Risk

SP-500 (Weekly) Mid Day Update

Bear Fork Being Tested, Will It Hold?

• Close Above 1076 Would Start To Be Very Bullish In The Short Term
• Next Stop Would Be 1100, That Breaks (Very Bullish)
• ISM Numbers Came In Very Strong
• Will The Rally Hold? 
• Will All Come Down To Friday

Consumer Confidence Up! But Are They Spending?

*Chart From Consumer Metrics

• Consumer Confidence Came In At 53.5 vs 49.5
• According To Consumer Metrics, THEY ARE NOT
• None The Less This Is Something To Watch

USO (Daily) Nice Bounce Off The Median Line

Bear Hat

• Got A Very Nice Bounce
• Break Below Median Line = Trouble For Oil
• Oil Goes Down SP-500 Will Be Right There Too

XHB (Daily) Still In The Dog House

Bear Hat

• XHB Needs To Close Above  14.70 To Give The Bulls Hope
• Break Below 13.50 Would Be Very Bearish

SP-500 (Weekly) 8-30

Bear Hat

• SP-500 Breaking Down Fast
• Close Above 1075 Would Give The Bulls Some Room
• Close Below 1040 Would Bring The Bears Out
• 968 Target Still In Play
• Will All Come Down To Fridays Job Report

What To Watch Week of 8-30-2010

• Consumer Confidence Aug 31 at 10:00am
• Briefing Forecast 49.5
• Market Expects 50.0
• ISM Index Sep 1st at 10:00am
• Briefing Forecast 53.0
• Market Expects 52.9
• Looking For A Miss Here and a Number Closer to 51
• Unemployment Rate Sep 3 at 8:30
• Briefing Forecast 9.6
• Market Expects 9.6
• Looking For A Miss Here
• Watch For 9.7 or Higher, Unless more people leave the work force

Take Away From Q2 GDP

• GDP Is A Backward Indicator
• GDP Was Revised Down -0.8 To 1.6
• Was Better Then 1.4 Being Forecast
• Keep In Mind In Q2 Housing Was Still Doing Well, Not The Case In Q3
• Consumer Was Weak But Now Is Very Weak
• Q2 Had The Peak of Stimulus From The Government  (See Chart Below)
• Q3 Will Be Under 1 Percent Growth Could Be Under .5
• Clearly GDP Is Going The Wrong Way For A Recovery

*Chart From Businessinsider.com

Q3 GDP Not Looking Good

*Chart From Consumer Metrics

SLV (Weekly) Poor Man's Gold

Bull Hat

• SLV Following The Bull Fork Very Nicely
• Break Below  17.30 Would Start To Be Bearish

GLD (Weekly) Small Bear Pulls In Big Bull

Bull Hat

• GLD Broke Out Of The Small Bear Fork But Closed Just Right Under It
• Still Need A Close Above 121.50
• Close Below 119.00 Would Start To Be Bearish

European Bonds 2.0

Bear Hat

*Chart is from Calculated Risk

• Look For "Europe Bonds In Trouble, Again!"  In The Head Lines Soon
• With The Negative Data Coming Out Of The United States + European Bonds = Down Fall Ahead
• Time To Be Smart With Your Money!

SP-500 (Weekly) Mid Day Update

Bear Hat

• SP-500 Following Small Bear Fork To the T
• 960 Target Still In Play
• Huge Housing Miss Played Out As Expected
• Close Above 1080 Would Give The Bulls Hope
• It Will Come Down To GDP On Friday And Initial Clams On Thursday

Update On Consumer & GDP

Consumer Getting Weaker

*Chart is from Dshort.com, data is from Consumer Metrics 

• GDP Will Likely Disappoint Like Housing Did Today
• With Housing And The Consumer Continuing To Drop, GDP Will Not Be Far Behind 
• Friday Will Be A Big Day For Bulls Or Bears

GLD (Weekly) Small Bear In a Big Bull

Small Bear Pushing Around The Big Bull?

• GLD Needs To Break 121.50 For The Bull Fork To Stay In Control
• Break Below 118.90 Would Be Bearish
• Have To See How It Plays Out Over The Next Week

SP-500 (Weekly) Mid Day Update

Just How It Works

• The rally this morning hit the mid line and turned south
• This is a great way to show how forks get the job done
• The downward fork gave a great entry point to short the S&P at 1081
• Note: Mid-lines are great for DAY TRADES  

Banks Keep Failing

Bear Hat

*Chart From Thechartstore.com

• Banks Just Keep Going Under
• Click Here To See Failed Bank List
• 118 Banks Have Failed So Fair this Year
• Over 800 Banks Are On The FDIC Watch List!

What To Watch Week of 8-23-2010

• Existing Home Sales Aug 24th at 10:00am est
• 4.6 million is what the market expects
• Could be a large miss due to the hang over of the tax credit
• Looking for a miss here
• Initial Claims Aug 26th at 8:30am est
• -485k is what the market expects
• Could see over -500k Again
• GDP - Second Estimate Aug 27th 8:30am est
• 1.4 what the market expects
• Looking for 1.3
• If it is under 1.3, Watch for Q3 GDP to be in the RED!

Weekly Leading Index Points To Another RECESSION!

Bear Hat

*Chart from dshort.com, data from ECRI

• Another Recession Around The Conner?
• Maybe We Are Still In The Same One!
• Fed Cannot Lower the Federal Funds Rate Any Lower
• Fed Out of Ammo? 

SP-500 (Weekly) Weekend Update

Bear Hat

• Still in a downward Bear Fork
• Close above 1080 would start to give the bulls hope
• Close above 1100 would be very bullish
• Downward target of 968 in play at the moment

GLD (Weekly) Small Bear In a Big Bull

Bull Hat

• Break above 121.20 would break the bear fork
• Break below 119.40 would show the bear fork is in play
• Higher highs past 3 weeks (Bullish)

USO (Daily) With Bear Fork

Bear Hat

• Oil Stuck In A Down Fork
• Should See A Small Bounce Near 32.25
• Break Below Medline Would Be Very Bearish 
• Close below 32, could bring more bears to the party

XLF (Daily) With Bear Fork

Bear Hat

• XLF Is In The Dog House
• Break above 14 would start to break the down fork
• With banks starting to fall, is the whole Market Next?

Why GDP Is In Trouble

Bear Hat

*Chart is from Dshort.com, data is from Consumer Metrics 

• Consumer Metrics has been a great leading indicator for GDP
• With the consumer pulling back hard (Which is 2/3 of GDP) GDP will continue to fall unless the consumer comes back, FAST!  
•   Watch the Q2 GDP numbers on Aug 27th 
• Will be the Second Estimate for Q2
• Will be revised down (I am looking for 1.3 growth for Q2)
• Q3 GDP looking for under 1 percent growth
• Q4 GDP could be in the red!

SP-500 (Weekly) With Bull Fork In Play 2006-2008

Bull Hat

• Here is a look at Bull Fork that worked for a very long time
• It is a good way to see how Andrew's Pitch Fork works
• When Long Term Fork breaks, it can get ugly!

SP-500 (Weekly) With LARGE Bear Fork In Play

Bear Hat

• Very Large Bear Fork In Play Here! (Watch Out)
• Break above 1112 would put the large bear fork in question
• Larger Bear Fork down gives mid line target of 550-600
• Chances of Large Bear Fork staying in play?
• A major crash would have to take place soon
• Possible with the economic data being very negative
• Market would have to see the same selling as it did in fall 2008
• Watch GDP on Aug 27th, below 1.5 would be VERY NEGATIVE 

SP-500 (Weekly) With Bear Fork In Play

Bear Hat

• Break below the mind line (Now In Play)
• Target of 1056
• Low end Target of 980
• Break above 1130 would be very bullish

SP-500 (Weekly)

Bear Hat

• SP-500 has broken it's bull fork that has been working since the lows
  
  
• This is Bearish and time to be careful if you are long this market