SP-500 Weekly + QE 3 In Sept = Markets Short Term Jump

SP-500 Weekly

• Bulls Get Ammo From Fed Speech
• September 21st Next Fed Meeting
• Look For QE3 To Be Unleashed
• Market Jump Should Go Tell 1205-1235 Before Heading Down Again
• If Bulls Can Break 1257, Bull's Will Control The Market

Gold Near A Top & SP-500 Trading Range

GLD - Weekly

• GLD Starting To Look Like SLV Did Before It Topped
• WOULD NOT BUY GOLD HERE
• If Long, Have 5% Trailing Stop In Place
• Could Get One Last Big Pop Near 190 Range On The GLD
• Note If There Is QE3 Gold Could Go Higher, A Lot Higher

SP-500 Weekly

• Support Should Come In Around 1090-1100
• Once Support Is Hit Look For A Bounce To 1170-1235
• Bounce Could Come Into Play Do To New Hopes of QE3 Or Euro Bonds
• If Support Is Broken = WATCH OUT
• Market Could Go In Free Fail

Quick UPDATE

UPDATE

• Red Across The Board This Morning
• Housing Missed As Predicted
• Philadelphia Fed Came In A Negative 30.7
• ISM Later This Month Will Most Likely Be Below 50
• SP-500 Came Close To The Mid-line Before Retreating
• Long Day Ahead, Will Update Forks At The Close
• KEY POINT: Economy Is Getting Weaker
• Chart Below From Calculated Risk Clearly Shows This!

This Is Happening!!

SP-500 UPDATE

SP-500

• 1st Resistance Will Come In @ 1224 Range
• Bulls Are Being Fueled By Talks of QE3
• If It Break High Above 1224
• New Target = 1330
• Will Come Down To Economic Data And Europe
• Empire Manufacturing Was Very Weak Today At A NEGATIVE 7.70 
• Showing More Signs of Weakness
• Home Sales Come Out 8/18
• Market Is Looking For 4.87 Million Homes Sold
• Will Be Weaker Then The Market Thinks
• Europe Meeting Tomorrow
• Any Negative News Will Send The Markets Much Lower

GLD Weekly

GLD - Weekly

• GLD Hitting The Top of The Bull Fork
• Could See A Huge Move Higher - Like We Did In The SLV Before It Topped
• Look For Gold To Hit 1900 to 2000
• QE3 Could Change All That Depending On How Big It Is

BIG BOUNCE!!!

SP-500

• Nice Bounce Off Support
• Fed "No QE3 As of Now" Killed The Rally
• Then The Market Jumped 630 Points off The Lows Due To Short Covering, Big Funds Buying, HIT SUPPORT & The Market Was WAY OVER SOLD - Short Term
• With The Markets Moving So Fast All We Can Do It Look At The Forks

BEAR HAT

• The Market Stays In The Bear Fork
• SP-500 Does Not Go Past 1340
• Europe Keeps Falling Apart - Watch Greece, Italy, & Spain
• Washington Stays In Gridlock or Trillions More Get Cut From Government Spending = 1930's All Over

BULL HAT

• Market Breaks The Bear Fork - "Will Add Bull Fork When One Forms"
• QE3
• Jobs Start Being Created At 175k - 250k A Month
• Housing Starts To Recover

Keep In Mind Last Time Markets Where Like This Was 10/20/08

• Market Jumped 4.7%
• Six Months Later Market Was Down -13.7%

WE GOT THE BOUNCE

SP - 500 Weekly

• Nice To See A Bounce
• Bear Fork Is Playing Out
• Break Below 1100 Would Break The Bear Fork And We Could See 2008-2009 All Over Again
• Rally Could Take Off If The Fed Hints About QE3
• No Hint Of QE3 = Rally Will Collapse 

S&P UPDATE - SUPPORT NEAR

S&P WEEKLY UPDATE

• Support Is Near Around 1100
• If 1100 Is Broken, Next Support 1030
• People Being Forced To Sell On Margin
• Fed Speaks Tomorrow
• QE3 Would Give The Market A Pump
• Would Be Short Lived
• If Bears Are Not Taking Profits - What Are They Waiting For? 

XLF - Weekly

XLF

• XLF Needs To Stay Above 12.50
• Break Below 12.50 Could Cause Another Shoe To Drop In The Banks

Why The Bears Are So Strong

Margin Debt Is The Reason!

• Great Chart From dshort.com
• People Are Being Forced To Sell Do To Being On Margin

Update On S&P 500 And XLF (WEEKLY)

SP-500

• SP-500 Still In Free Fall Mode
• 200 MDA @ 1160 Will Act As Last Support Before Bottom of The Fork @ 1100
• Should See Some What of A Bounce Next Week
• All About Europe

XLF - BANKS

• Hard Week For The Banks
• Support Comes In At 12.50 
• Banks Lead The Market Overall
• Break Below 12.50 Could Send The XLF To 9.30

WHY THE DOWN GRADE

Not A Great Out Look = Down Grade

• Will Be Lucky If It Stops At AA+
• GOVERNMENT NEEDS TO STOP SPENDING!!

Scary Chart From dshort.com

Just The Start of The Bear??

• Fed Will Come In With QE3
• If No QE3 Market Will Fall Hard & Fast
• QE3 Will Buy Time, Will Not Fix Anything
• If There Is QE3
• Markets Will Hold Tell QE3 Is Depleted 
• With The S&P Down Grading The U.S. To AA+
• Can The Fed Do A QE3?
• Hard Times Are Ahead, That Much Is For Sure

Ouch!

DJ - 30 Weekly

• If There Is A Real Real Bad Jobs Number Tomorrow = Watch Out
• Support Near 11,300
• The DJ Bear Fork Is Saying The Number Will Not Be That Bad
• However S&P Bear Fork Says Different

SP - 500 Weekly

• S&P Bear Fork Saying There Is A Strong Chance 1100 Will Act As Support
• Tomorrow Should Be Another Fun Day For The Markets!

In The End

• Most Likely Will Be Some Kind of QE3
• Could Give The Markets A Pump
• It Is All About The PIIGS "Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain"
• Sooner Than Latter One Of Them Will Bring Down The Euro
• One Falls = They All Do
• Time To Be Safe & Smart With Money
• More Crack Does Not Help A Crack Addict 

AAPL Hit A Top?

AAPL - Weekly

• AAPL Hit The Top of The Bull Fork At $405
• With Weak Consumer = Weak Apple
• Break Below $350 Would Start To Be Bearish
• iPhone 5 Will Give The Stock A Boost Next Month
• Could Break Out of The Bull Fork
• AAPL Leads The Market, One Stock To Watch

EEM Update

EEM

• Hit 100 DMA
• Should See A Small Bounce At $42.60
• Break Above $46.70 Would Be A Sign of Life
• EEM Will Lead All Other Markets

Update DJ-30

DJ-30

• Mid-line Broke
• Could See A Bounce At 11,315 
• All About Europe! 
• Could See A Big Bounce Come QE3
• Will Give A Short Rally
• In The End, We Have To Pay Up
• Could See A Bounce Tomorrow If Jobs Report Is Not REAL REAL BAD
• If the Number Is Red = WATCH OUT
• More Likely Will Be Red Next Month
• HAVE STOPS IN PLACE!!!!

GOLD BULL

GLD

• GLD Hit Mid-line
• Break Up Higher = Look For 180!
• QE3 = 200
• Could See Ben Bring QE3 To The Table Next Month
• Will Not Help In The Long Run

DJ- 30 UPDATE

DJ- 30

• Nice Bounce Off The Bear Fork Mid-line
• Is It Just A Bounce?
• Will Come Down To Jobs Number On Friday
• Do Not Think It Will Be Great
• Market Looking For 100k
• Lucky If We Get Half That
• Break Through Mid-line = 11,250 Could Happen Fast!

Just Follow The Forks

SP- 500

• Forks Knew ISM Would Be Bad
• Also Knew Debt Deal Would Not Be Done Last Week
• SP-500 Still In Large Bear Fork
• Break Above 1340 Would Start To Bullish
• Should See Some Life At 1230
• Break Below 1200 Would Suggest 1060 Could Be In The Cards
• Could Still Have One Last Rally Later This Year, Fueled By QE3

GLD

• GLD Still In A Bull Fork
• Break Below 150 Would Start To Be Bearish