Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Consumer Confidence Up! But Are They Spending?


*Chart From Consumer Metrics
  • Consumer Confidence Came In At 53.5 vs 49.5
  • According To Consumer Metrics, THEY ARE NOT
  • None The Less This Is Something To Watch

Monday, August 30, 2010

USO (Daily) Nice Bounce Off The Median Line

Bear Hat
  • Got A Very Nice Bounce
  • Break Below Median Line = Trouble For Oil
  • Oil Goes Down SP-500 Will Be Right There Too

XHB (Daily) Still In The Dog House

Bear Hat

  • XHB Needs To Close Above  14.70 To Give The Bulls Hope
  • Break Below 13.50 Would Be Very Bearish

SP-500 (Weekly) 8-30

Bear Hat
  • SP-500 Breaking Down Fast
  • Close Above 1075 Would Give The Bulls Some Room
  • Close Below 1040 Would Bring The Bears Out
  • 968 Target Still In Play
  • Will All Come Down To Fridays Job Report

What To Watch Week of 8-30-2010

  • Consumer Confidence Aug 31 at 10:00am
    • Briefing Forecast 49.5
    • Market Expects 50.0
  • ISM Index Sep 1st at 10:00am
    • Briefing Forecast 53.0
    • Market Expects 52.9
    • Looking For A Miss Here and a Number Closer to 51
  • Unemployment Rate Sep 3 at 8:30
    • Briefing Forecast 9.6
    • Market Expects 9.6
    • Looking For A Miss Here
    • Watch For 9.7 or Higher, Unless more people leave the work force

Friday, August 27, 2010

Take Away From Q2 GDP

  • GDP Is A Backward Indicator
  • GDP Was Revised Down -0.8 To 1.6
  • Was Better Then 1.4 Being Forecast
  • Keep In Mind In Q2 Housing Was Still Doing Well, Not The Case In Q3
  • Consumer Was Weak But Now Is Very Weak
  • Q2 Had The Peak of Stimulus From The Government  (See Chart Below)
  • Q3 Will Be Under 1 Percent Growth Could Be Under .5
  • Clearly GDP Is Going The Wrong Way For A Recovery





*Chart From Businessinsider.com


Q3 GDP Not Looking Good
*Chart From Consumer Metrics



    Thursday, August 26, 2010

    SLV (Weekly) Poor Man's Gold

    Bull Hat
    • SLV Following The Bull Fork Very Nicely
    • Break Below  17.30 Would Start To Be Bearish

    GLD (Weekly) Small Bear Pulls In Big Bull

    Bull Hat
    • GLD Broke Out Of The Small Bear Fork But Closed Just Right Under It
    • Still Need A Close Above 121.50
    • Close Below 119.00 Would Start To Be Bearish

    Wednesday, August 25, 2010

    European Bonds 2.0

    Bear Hat
    *Chart is from Calculated Risk
    • Look For "Europe Bonds In Trouble, Again!"  In The Head Lines Soon
    • With The Negative Data Coming Out Of The United States + European Bonds = Down Fall Ahead
    • Time To Be Smart With Your Money!

    Tuesday, August 24, 2010

    SP-500 (Weekly) Mid Day Update

    Bear Hat
    • SP-500 Following Small Bear Fork To the T
    • 960 Target Still In Play
    • Huge Housing Miss Played Out As Expected
    • Close Above 1080 Would Give The Bulls Hope
    • It Will Come Down To GDP On Friday And Initial Clams On Thursday

    Update On Consumer & GDP

    Consumer Getting Weaker
    *Chart is from Dshort.com, data is from Consumer Metrics 

    • GDP Will Likely Disappoint Like Housing Did Today
    • With Housing And The Consumer Continuing To Drop, GDP Will Not Be Far Behind 
    • Friday Will Be A Big Day For Bulls Or Bears

    GLD (Weekly) Small Bear In a Big Bull

    Small Bear Pushing Around The Big Bull?
    • GLD Needs To Break 121.50 For The Bull Fork To Stay In Control
    • Break Below 118.90 Would Be Bearish
    • Have To See How It Plays Out Over The Next Week

    Monday, August 23, 2010

    SP-500 (Weekly) Mid Day Update

    Just How It Works
    • The rally this morning hit the mid line and turned south
    • This is a great way to show how forks get the job done
    • The downward fork gave a great entry point to short the S&P at 1081
    • Note: Mid-lines are great for DAY TRADES  

    Sunday, August 22, 2010

    Banks Keep Failing

    Bear Hat

    *Chart From Thechartstore.com
    • Banks Just Keep Going Under
    • Click Here To See Failed Bank List
    • 118 Banks Have Failed So Fair this Year
    • Over 800 Banks Are On The FDIC Watch List!

    What To Watch Week of 8-23-2010

    • Existing Home Sales Aug 24th at 10:00am est
      • 4.6 million is what the market expects
      • Could be a large miss due to the hang over of the tax credit
      • Looking for a miss here
    • Initial Claims Aug 26th at 8:30am est
      • -485k is what the market expects
      • Could see over -500k Again
    • GDP - Second Estimate Aug 27th 8:30am est
      • 1.4 what the market expects
      • Looking for 1.3
      • If it is under 1.3, Watch for Q3 GDP to be in the RED!

    Weekly Leading Index Points To Another RECESSION!

    Bear Hat
    *Chart from dshort.com, data from ECRI
    • Another Recession Around The Conner?
    • Maybe We Are Still In The Same One!
    • Fed Cannot Lower the Federal Funds Rate Any Lower
      • Fed Out of Ammo? 

    SP-500 (Weekly) Weekend Update

    Bear Hat

    • Still in a downward Bear Fork
    • Close above 1080 would start to give the bulls hope
    • Close above 1100 would be very bullish
    • Downward target of 968 in play at the moment

    Friday, August 20, 2010

    GLD (Weekly) Small Bear In a Big Bull

    Bull Hat
    • Break above 121.20 would break the bear fork
    • Break below 119.40 would show the bear fork is in play
    • Higher highs past 3 weeks (Bullish)

    USO (Daily) With Bear Fork

    Bear Hat
    • Oil Stuck In A Down Fork
    • Should See A Small Bounce Near 32.25
    • Break Below Medline Would Be Very Bearish 
      • Close below 32, could bring more bears to the party

    XLF (Daily) With Bear Fork

    Bear Hat
    • XLF Is In The Dog House
    • Break above 14 would start to break the down fork
    • With banks starting to fall, is the whole Market Next?

    Why GDP Is In Trouble

    Bear Hat
    *Chart is from Dshort.com, data is from Consumer Metrics 
    • Consumer Metrics has been a great leading indicator for GDP
    • With the consumer pulling back hard (Which is 2/3 of GDP) GDP will continue to fall unless the consumer comes back, FAST!  
    •   Watch the Q2 GDP numbers on Aug 27th 
      • Will be the Second Estimate for Q2
      • Will be revised down (I am looking for 1.3 growth for Q2)
      • Q3 GDP looking for under 1 percent growth
      • Q4 GDP could be in the red!

    SP-500 (Weekly) With Bull Fork In Play 2006-2008

    Bull Hat

    • Here is a look at Bull Fork that worked for a very long time
    • It is a good way to see how Andrew's Pitch Fork works
    • When Long Term Fork breaks, it can get ugly!

    Thursday, August 19, 2010

    SP-500 (Weekly) With LARGE Bear Fork In Play

    Bear Hat


    • Very Large Bear Fork In Play Here! (Watch Out)
    • Break above 1112 would put the large bear fork in question
    • Larger Bear Fork down gives mid line target of 550-600
    • Chances of Large Bear Fork staying in play?
      • A major crash would have to take place soon
      • Possible with the economic data being very negative
      • Market would have to see the same selling as it did in fall 2008
      • Watch GDP on Aug 27th, below 1.5 would be VERY NEGATIVE 

    SP-500 (Weekly) With Bear Fork In Play

    Bear Hat


    • Break below the mind line (Now In Play)
    • Target of 1056
    • Low end Target of 980
    • Break above 1130 would be very bullish

    SP-500 (Weekly)

    Bear Hat


    • SP-500 has broken it's bull fork that has been working since the lows

    • This is Bearish and time to be careful if you are long this market