MAKE OR BREAK!

DJ-30 (Weekly)

• Make Or Break For The Bears Just Ahead!
• Break Above 12300 on DJ-30 Could End The Bear Fork
• Look At The MACD Below
• Looks Much Like 2008
• We Will Know Soon

No Matter If You Are A Bull Or A Bear, Have Stops IN PLACE!

Bears Last Week, Bulls This Week, Bears Next Week?

SP-500 (Daily)

• What A RIDE!
• Note:  Warned The Bears On Nov 27th!
• DO NOT GET GREEDY
• Bull Turn Now - DO NOT GET GREEDY! 7% In A WEEK!
• Bull Came Back Strong - But Is It Over Or Just Getting Started?
• Looking At The Forks
• For The Bulls
• Bulls Could Not Close Above The Mid-line (1260)
• If Bulls Can Break 1260 - 1275 Would Be In Play
• Break On 1275 Would Be VERY BULLISH
• For The Bears
• Market Is Very Overbought (Short term) 
• Bears Mush Hold 1275!
• Break Below 1160 Would End Bull Fork
• Last Time Markets Rallied This Much Was Oct. 2008

WHO WILL BREAK? SP-500 Vs UUP

SP-500 (Weekly)

• Watch Mid-line (1200)
• Break There - Bulls Have Room To 1212
• Santa Rally Could Get The Market To 1260 Range (If There Is One)
• All News Is Based On Rumor
• Rally Today Is Much Like The Ones Is The Past
• Does Not End Well In The Long Run

UUP

• UUP Still In A Bull Fork
• Break Below Mid-line Would Be Bullish For SP-500
• Break Below 21.80 - Large Rally Would Be Underway For The SP-500

QUICK NOTE

DO NOT COUNT THE BULL OUT YET!

• Large Amount of Bearish News Out This Weekend
• Markets Have Had a HUGE DOWN WEEK
• Time For A BOUNCE
• 1180 -1212 Range
• Note All News Is Based On Rumor For The Bulls
• IMF BAILOUT OF ITALY
• Where Will They Get The Money?
• U.S. All Ready Stated No More Money From them
• Watch The Range of The Fork, And Hold ON!

Weekly Update - SP-500 & BAC

SP-500 (Weekly)

• Break Down Continues
• All Moving Averages NOW BROKEN
• Bulls Need A Break Above 1180
• Bears Need A Break Below 1140 
• Small Bull Fork Still In Play
• Major Break Below 1140 Would End Bull Fork
• Major Fall-Out Could Be Near
• DANGER ZONE - Now - March

BAC (Weekly)

• BAC Could Go To ZERO!
• Break Below $5 Would Open The Flood Gates For The BEARS
• Bulls Need A Break Above $5.50 & FAST!
• Does Not Look Good For BAC or ANY BANK

Leverage + Leverage + Debt = NOT GOOD

Bull Taking A Break Or Tapping Out?

SP-500 Weekly

• Forks Our Telling Us To Be Careful, No Matter If You Are LONG or SHORT
• Rally Could Find Legs Latter This Month BUT Watch The Range
• BEARS Want A Break Below 1161
• Next Support Would Be 1097
• Break Below Both These Levels Could Bring Papa Bear Out!
• BULLS Want 1216 (100 WMA) To Hold
• Next Major Support 1197
• If Neither Hold
• 1161 Is The Line!

• Markets Starting To Break Down Due To:
• Bond Market Not Buying The Bail Out
• Greece Cannot Collect Any Tax's 
• Greece Wants To Put Bailout Package To A Vote
• Portugal And Italy Starting To Follow Greece
• I Believe They Will Within 3-6 Months Time (If Not Sooner)

Crazy Ride Ahead - That Much Is For Sure

2008 Vs 2011 "Right On Track"

Right On Track

• March 2008 All Over Again?
• Time Will Tell

• Europe Fixes Debt Problem With More Debt!
• How Could That Work?
• If We Are In The Same Trend As 2007-2009
• Markets Will Get Very Bumpy Early Next Year
• Something To Keep An Eye On
• NO MATTER IF YOU ARE A BULL OR BEAR TRADE WITH STOPS

DOW Leading The Way!

• This Chart Main Reason I Believe In The Pitch-Fork Trading Method
• Called Both Bottoms Right On The Line
• High Break Above 12,400 Could Give The Bulls New Legs
• Hard Stop @ 12,400 Could Send The Dow Back To The 10,000 Level
• Important Line To Watch
• Major Break @ 12,400 Will Move To S&P 500
• Will Be An Interesting Ride Over The Next Year

Just Follow The Fork, Not The Hope

DJ-Weekly

• Make It Simple, Follow The Fork Tell It Says Different
• Called A Short Term Bottom At 10,400
• Market Could Rally Tell High End of The Fork -12,000 Range Before Heading Lower
• Major Break Above 12,250 Could End The Bear Fork
• Watch The 50 Week Moving Avg. 11,875

Hope Rally!

SP-500 Weekly

• Looking At Past Forks
• SP-500 Is Playing Out The Same Pattern As 2008
• If SP-500 Can Break 1230
• Market Could Head To 1300+
• Much of The Rally Has Been off Hopes Of Europe Bailout Fund
• If The Market Can Not Break 1230
• Market Could Head To 1040 Before A Late Year Rally Into A Crash Next Year
• Only 3 Things Could Buy Time
• QE3 "Which Is Already Under Way"
• Another Stimulus Bill 
• EFSF Fund Gets Much Bigger
• Time Will Tell

S&P Update

S&P Weekly

• Watch 1162 Level
• Break Above Is Bullish
• Lows Could Be In For The Year
• No Break On 1162 Level Would Send The Market Lower
• Comes Down To Jobs Numbers Tomorrow
• Market Is Looking For +60k
• Most Likely Will Come In 0 - 45k
• Keep In Mind NOTHING GOES UP OR DOWN IN A STRAIGHT LINE

Will The Markets HOLD?

SP-Weekly

• Still In Trading Range
• Break Below 1110 - Very Bearish
• Bulls Need A Strong Jobs Report Friday (Good Luck)
• If There Is A Large Break Below 1110
• 1040 Will Be In Play
• Need To Watch The Banks!

XLF-Weekly

• Still In A Trading Range As Well
• 11.70 Is The Line In The Sand For The Bears
• Big Break Below 11.70 = Free Fall Mode

Key To The Market Is The Banks And Europe.

Will Update Wednesday

Watch The Support & Resistance On S&P And The GLD

SP-500

• SP-500 Can Break 1225
• Bulls Could Push Higher
• Break Below 1100
• Bears Will Have Control

GLD

• GLD Hitting Top of The Bull Fork 
• Break Above 190
• Bulls Could Push It To 210
• Break Below 171
• Bears Could Push It Back To 160

Lets See How It Plays Over The Next 3 Weeks

Support Is Near, Will It Hold?

S&P 500

• 1115 Will Act As Short Term Support
• Our Market's Are Tied To Europe
• Sooner Then Latter Greece Will Default
• Followed By Spain And The Other PIGS
• Market Could Get A Big Bounce Due To QE3, Along With More Stimulus From Washington 
• Long Run
• Stimulus Will Only Help Short Term, Like It Did In Japan
• Early 2012 Could Be 1937 All Over Again
• Do Not Take Risks That Are Not Needed

Downgrades And Earnings Looking Bearish

Profit Margins

• Margins Near All Time Highs
• Will They Go Higher?
• Most Likely No, And Will See This Come Up In Q3 And Q4
• This Is Very Bearish

Analyst Optimism

• Chance of Upgrades less likely
• Chance of Downgrades VERY HIGH

S&P 500 Weekly Update

Bears Out In Full Force!

• Markets Are Hurting Do To Europe
• Will Only Get Worse In The Long Run
• Break Below 1116 Could Cause The Market To Go In Free Fall
• 1040 Is One of The last Support Before The 900 Level On The S&P
• Be Smart With Your Money, Way To Much Risk Out There For Little Reward

BAC In The House of Pain

BAC - Weekly

• Break Above 9 Could Give The Stock Some Life
• Stock Could Be Below $6 Within Weeks Before The Next Bounce
• BAC In A Major BEAR Fork

S&P 500 And ERCI

S&P 500

• Clock Work
• Hit Mid-line And Headed Back Down
• Fork Suggesting Market Headed Back To The Lows
• Bear Fork Knew Jobs Data Was Going To Be Poor
• 0 Jobs Added
• Economy Will Continue To Weaken 
• QE3 Could Come Into Play Late Sept
• Will Not Help In Long Term
• QE1 & QE2 Failed, QE3 Will Not Be Different

ECRI

• ERCI Pointing to Negative GDP
• How Low Will It Go?

SP-500 Weekly + QE 3 In Sept = Markets Short Term Jump

SP-500 Weekly

• Bulls Get Ammo From Fed Speech
• September 21st Next Fed Meeting
• Look For QE3 To Be Unleashed
• Market Jump Should Go Tell 1205-1235 Before Heading Down Again
• If Bulls Can Break 1257, Bull's Will Control The Market

Gold Near A Top & SP-500 Trading Range

GLD - Weekly

• GLD Starting To Look Like SLV Did Before It Topped
• WOULD NOT BUY GOLD HERE
• If Long, Have 5% Trailing Stop In Place
• Could Get One Last Big Pop Near 190 Range On The GLD
• Note If There Is QE3 Gold Could Go Higher, A Lot Higher

SP-500 Weekly

• Support Should Come In Around 1090-1100
• Once Support Is Hit Look For A Bounce To 1170-1235
• Bounce Could Come Into Play Do To New Hopes of QE3 Or Euro Bonds
• If Support Is Broken = WATCH OUT
• Market Could Go In Free Fail

Quick UPDATE

UPDATE

• Red Across The Board This Morning
• Housing Missed As Predicted
• Philadelphia Fed Came In A Negative 30.7
• ISM Later This Month Will Most Likely Be Below 50
• SP-500 Came Close To The Mid-line Before Retreating
• Long Day Ahead, Will Update Forks At The Close
• KEY POINT: Economy Is Getting Weaker
• Chart Below From Calculated Risk Clearly Shows This!

This Is Happening!!

SP-500 UPDATE

SP-500

• 1st Resistance Will Come In @ 1224 Range
• Bulls Are Being Fueled By Talks of QE3
• If It Break High Above 1224
• New Target = 1330
• Will Come Down To Economic Data And Europe
• Empire Manufacturing Was Very Weak Today At A NEGATIVE 7.70 
• Showing More Signs of Weakness
• Home Sales Come Out 8/18
• Market Is Looking For 4.87 Million Homes Sold
• Will Be Weaker Then The Market Thinks
• Europe Meeting Tomorrow
• Any Negative News Will Send The Markets Much Lower

GLD Weekly

GLD - Weekly

• GLD Hitting The Top of The Bull Fork
• Could See A Huge Move Higher - Like We Did In The SLV Before It Topped
• Look For Gold To Hit 1900 to 2000
• QE3 Could Change All That Depending On How Big It Is

BIG BOUNCE!!!

SP-500

• Nice Bounce Off Support
• Fed "No QE3 As of Now" Killed The Rally
• Then The Market Jumped 630 Points off The Lows Due To Short Covering, Big Funds Buying, HIT SUPPORT & The Market Was WAY OVER SOLD - Short Term
• With The Markets Moving So Fast All We Can Do It Look At The Forks

BEAR HAT

• The Market Stays In The Bear Fork
• SP-500 Does Not Go Past 1340
• Europe Keeps Falling Apart - Watch Greece, Italy, & Spain
• Washington Stays In Gridlock or Trillions More Get Cut From Government Spending = 1930's All Over

BULL HAT

• Market Breaks The Bear Fork - "Will Add Bull Fork When One Forms"
• QE3
• Jobs Start Being Created At 175k - 250k A Month
• Housing Starts To Recover

Keep In Mind Last Time Markets Where Like This Was 10/20/08

• Market Jumped 4.7%
• Six Months Later Market Was Down -13.7%

WE GOT THE BOUNCE

SP - 500 Weekly

• Nice To See A Bounce
• Bear Fork Is Playing Out
• Break Below 1100 Would Break The Bear Fork And We Could See 2008-2009 All Over Again
• Rally Could Take Off If The Fed Hints About QE3
• No Hint Of QE3 = Rally Will Collapse 

S&P UPDATE - SUPPORT NEAR

S&P WEEKLY UPDATE

• Support Is Near Around 1100
• If 1100 Is Broken, Next Support 1030
• People Being Forced To Sell On Margin
• Fed Speaks Tomorrow
• QE3 Would Give The Market A Pump
• Would Be Short Lived
• If Bears Are Not Taking Profits - What Are They Waiting For? 

XLF - Weekly

XLF

• XLF Needs To Stay Above 12.50
• Break Below 12.50 Could Cause Another Shoe To Drop In The Banks

Why The Bears Are So Strong

Margin Debt Is The Reason!

• Great Chart From dshort.com
• People Are Being Forced To Sell Do To Being On Margin

Update On S&P 500 And XLF (WEEKLY)

SP-500

• SP-500 Still In Free Fall Mode
• 200 MDA @ 1160 Will Act As Last Support Before Bottom of The Fork @ 1100
• Should See Some What of A Bounce Next Week
• All About Europe

XLF - BANKS

• Hard Week For The Banks
• Support Comes In At 12.50 
• Banks Lead The Market Overall
• Break Below 12.50 Could Send The XLF To 9.30

WHY THE DOWN GRADE

Not A Great Out Look = Down Grade

• Will Be Lucky If It Stops At AA+
• GOVERNMENT NEEDS TO STOP SPENDING!!

Scary Chart From dshort.com

Just The Start of The Bear??

• Fed Will Come In With QE3
• If No QE3 Market Will Fall Hard & Fast
• QE3 Will Buy Time, Will Not Fix Anything
• If There Is QE3
• Markets Will Hold Tell QE3 Is Depleted 
• With The S&P Down Grading The U.S. To AA+
• Can The Fed Do A QE3?
• Hard Times Are Ahead, That Much Is For Sure

Ouch!

DJ - 30 Weekly

• If There Is A Real Real Bad Jobs Number Tomorrow = Watch Out
• Support Near 11,300
• The DJ Bear Fork Is Saying The Number Will Not Be That Bad
• However S&P Bear Fork Says Different

SP - 500 Weekly

• S&P Bear Fork Saying There Is A Strong Chance 1100 Will Act As Support
• Tomorrow Should Be Another Fun Day For The Markets!

In The End

• Most Likely Will Be Some Kind of QE3
• Could Give The Markets A Pump
• It Is All About The PIIGS "Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain"
• Sooner Than Latter One Of Them Will Bring Down The Euro
• One Falls = They All Do
• Time To Be Safe & Smart With Money
• More Crack Does Not Help A Crack Addict 

AAPL Hit A Top?

AAPL - Weekly

• AAPL Hit The Top of The Bull Fork At $405
• With Weak Consumer = Weak Apple
• Break Below $350 Would Start To Be Bearish
• iPhone 5 Will Give The Stock A Boost Next Month
• Could Break Out of The Bull Fork
• AAPL Leads The Market, One Stock To Watch

EEM Update

EEM

• Hit 100 DMA
• Should See A Small Bounce At $42.60
• Break Above $46.70 Would Be A Sign of Life
• EEM Will Lead All Other Markets

Update DJ-30

DJ-30

• Mid-line Broke
• Could See A Bounce At 11,315 
• All About Europe! 
• Could See A Big Bounce Come QE3
• Will Give A Short Rally
• In The End, We Have To Pay Up
• Could See A Bounce Tomorrow If Jobs Report Is Not REAL REAL BAD
• If the Number Is Red = WATCH OUT
• More Likely Will Be Red Next Month
• HAVE STOPS IN PLACE!!!!

GOLD BULL

GLD

• GLD Hit Mid-line
• Break Up Higher = Look For 180!
• QE3 = 200
• Could See Ben Bring QE3 To The Table Next Month
• Will Not Help In The Long Run

DJ- 30 UPDATE

DJ- 30

• Nice Bounce Off The Bear Fork Mid-line
• Is It Just A Bounce?
• Will Come Down To Jobs Number On Friday
• Do Not Think It Will Be Great
• Market Looking For 100k
• Lucky If We Get Half That
• Break Through Mid-line = 11,250 Could Happen Fast!

Just Follow The Forks

SP- 500

• Forks Knew ISM Would Be Bad
• Also Knew Debt Deal Would Not Be Done Last Week
• SP-500 Still In Large Bear Fork
• Break Above 1340 Would Start To Bullish
• Should See Some Life At 1230
• Break Below 1200 Would Suggest 1060 Could Be In The Cards
• Could Still Have One Last Rally Later This Year, Fueled By QE3

GLD

• GLD Still In A Bull Fork
• Break Below 150 Would Start To Be Bearish 

Bulls Come Back

Much Has Happened Since I Have Been Out Of Town:

• New Greek Bail Out - Which buys Time
• No QE3 Yet - But Hints of It
• Debt Deal Needs To Be Reached By Sunday 7-31
• Will Come Down To The Last Min
• Bet We Will See It Go Into Monday 8-1

Lets Update The Forks And Post The Charts!

SP-500

• Fork Called The Top At 1356
• Break Above 1354 Now Would Break The Bear Fork
• Debt Deal Soon? Not Soon The Fork Says NO!

GLD

• Fork Called The Bottom At 143
• Break Below 147 Could End The Bull Run
• Bulls Fork Still Holding Strong