Thursday, May 5, 2011

About that Housing Market

Home Prices & REO's
Home Prices 

Housing Starts

  • Home prices are still falling like a rock
  • More homes are coming on to the market, which will only bring prices down
  • Large amount of REO's taking place and new homes still being build
  • Lots more supply then demand
  • Hard to buy a home if you do not have a job
  • Keep in mind home prices are still falling even with all the money the fed is spending
  • What will happy to home prices when interest rates go up?
  • Time to shorting homebuilders soon?

The Big Picture "Top in the market could be in soon"

Profit Margins 
  • Earnings have been very strong over the past year
  • Much of this has been due to better profit margins
  • Margins will start to feel the pain of higher oil prices
  • If companies start ever hiring, margins will go down
  • Market still could go higher into the summer but a top is near

Update On SLV

SLV


  • Hit the bottom line of the fork and holding
  • Covered (20% in 4 days, do not be greedy)
  • All commodities  are falling due to the dollar
  • Break $35 on the SLV would be very bearish
  • Funny how thing can change so fast in a week
  • All the down side in SLV, GLD, and the USO could be off set by QE3