Will The Bear Fork Hold?

SP-500 Weekly

• Bear fork coming into play
• Break above 1460 would be VERY Bullish
• We will get a BIG move soon!  
• Most likely to the 1460 range 

Hit the Target @ 1405

Markets hit the target to the dot

• Wait and see to what side breaks up or down 
• All comes down to the Fiscal Cliff....
• Deal will get done
• How big will the pop be?
• 1460-1480 range most likely 

Chart below from dshot.com says trouble ahead

Big Picture

SP-500 (Weekly) Bearish

• SP-500 in Bearish fork
• Bear Points
• Broke mid-line 
• MACD Bearish
• Break below 1250 would be very bad for the bulls
• Bounce is due to the 1370-1400 level
• Break above 1405 would be Bullish
• Break above 1450 would end the Bear fork

WEEKEND UPDATE

SP-500 (Weekly) Bearish

• SP-500 still in Bearish fork
• Bullfork mid-line about to take place at 1360
• Break below mid-line would be VERY BEARISH
• Next major support is at the 1260 range 
• Break above 1405 would be Bullish

APPL (Weekly) Bearish

• Apple still in Bearish fork
• Broke mid-line is very Bearish
• Next major support is 200 weekly moving average (460)
• Break below 460 would be VERY BEARISH 
• Break above 580 would be Bullish
• Whatever way Apple goes, the market will follow
• Apple will test 600 and then head back down

AAPL (APPLE) UPDATE

AAPL (Weekly) Bearish 

• AAPL in Bearish Fork
• Right on mid-line
• Break below 560 would be very Bearish
• Next stop below 560 would be 460 range
• Could get a strong bounce off mid-line (Most likley NOT)
• Break above 680 would be very Bullish

Weekend Update

SP-500 (Weekly) Bearish 

• Still in Bearish Fork
• Major support at 1404
• Break below 1404 would be Very Bearish
• Next support would be 1390
• IRS very over sold
• Would be very careful if I was a Bear
• Major pop could happen to the 1432 level

AAPL (Weekly) Bearish

• AAPL in a Bearish fork 
• Break below 580 would be very Bearish
• 580 is the line in the sand for the Bulls and Bears
• Watch AAPL
• Where it goes the market will go!

NASDAQ & OIL BEARISH, TLT ABOUT TO TURN BULLISH?

NASDAQ 100 (Weekly) Bearish

• Major down turn in play
• MACD turned bearish
• Bear fork target is 2550
• Break below 2550 would be Very Bearish
• Break above 2650 would be Bullish
• BEST SHORT WOULD BE AAPL!

OIL (Weekly) Bearish

• Oil needs to break above 100 DMA (95.82) to be Bullish
• Still in Bearish Fork
• Large move in Oil will take place next week

TLT (Weekly) Neutral 

• Major move underway
• Bearish if fork is broken
• Below 120.56
• Bullish if fork holds
• Bullish sign would be a break past 130.33
• New target would be 140.88

66% of A Major Crash?

SP-500 (Yearly)

(Chart From Zerohedge)

• Last 2 times we saw an 808 point climb in the SP-500
• Major crash came soon after
• Will it happen again?  
• We will know soon...Keep an eye on the NYSE
• Time to buy the Vix as a hedge if you are long

NYSE ( WEEKLY)

• NYSE is Neutral on the current read
• Break in the red line
• Market will see new lows
• Dow below 6k
• SP-500 below 600
• Break in the green line
• Market will see new highs 
• Dow over 14k
• SP-500 over 1500 

Got The Break Out, Hit 1470, Now WHAT?

NASDAQ-100 (Weekly) Bearish

• Nasdaq-100 Broke down out of Bull Fork
• Uptrend broke (Bearish)
• Break below 2500 would be very Bearish
• MACD starting to roll over (Bearish)
• Nasdaq-100 needs to break out of Bear fork soon
• Break above 2800 would be very Bullish

SP-500 ( Weekly) Neutral 

• SP-500 still in Bull Fork
• Uptrend broke (Bearish)
• Break below 1404 would be very Bearish
• MACD starting to roll over (Bearish)
• Next week will confirm if a Bear move is taking place
• If Bear move is not confirmed, QE3 could kick the market to NEW HIGHS

Light Sweet Crude Oil ( Weekly) Bearish

• Oil In Bearish Fork
• Break above 97.80 would trigger a bullish signal  
• Break below 83.50 would confirm a bearish signal
• MACD pointing to lower prices for oil
• Break above 0 could start to push oil higher

SP-500 (Will The Bear Fork Hold?) Bull Fork says NO!

SP-500 Bullish

• Bulls
• Break above 1400 would be Very Bullish
• Very strong chance we will break up
• QE3 is on the way, will pump markets higher
• 1470 would be the next target
• Bears 
• Break below 1350 would start to be Bearish 
• Break below 1300 be VERY Bearish
• Will the Fed save the day with another QE
• We will see what happens....Bulls look to be in control 

Storm Is Coming? Rain Coat Please!

Repeat From 2011?

• Feels Much Like 2011
• Europe is starting to fall apart once again
• Major slow down in the United States 
• Can I Get A QE Please?
• A QE3 would hold the storm off

EURO

• Euro Looking Bearish
• Stuck in a strong bear fork
• Needs to break above 1.26 to be Bullish
• Break below 1.19 would be VERY Bearish
• 1.19 last strong support

SP-500 and Vix

SP-500

• All signs pointing to Bearish, However one last run to 1370 or 1500
•  CAN HAPPEN STILL.
• MACD = Bearish
• Broke mid-line = Bearish
• Just Broke 50 DMA = Bearish
• Break above 1320 would start to be Bullish
• Break above 50 DMA would give the Bulls a line in the sand
• Quick Note - Lot of Bearish news out this weekend - a bounce should follow soon to as high as the 1370 range

VIX

• Vix hitting top of Bull Fork = Bearish short term
• Break below 19 would start to be Bearish

EUR = Bearish UUP = Bullish

UUP

• UUP looking bullish
• Break below 22 would be bearish
• 50 DMA is major support

EUR

• Euro is stuck in bearish fork
• Break above 1.30 would be bullish
• Break below 1.24 could send us back to 1.20 range

SP-500 & EUR = Weak UUP = Strong

SP-500

• SP-500 about to break below bull fork
• Break 1330 would be very bearish
• Next line of support would be 1275
• Bull market would come back with a break above 1400

EUR/USD

• EUR been in bear fork for some time
• Break below 1.25 could put the EUR in FREE FALL
• Break above falling line would be bullish (Around 1.30 level)

UUP

• UUP still in Bull Fork
• Break above the 100 DMA is bullish
• Break above 22.60 would be very bullish

DJ-30 & Vix

DJ-30

• Broke small Bear fork
• Next test will be Mid-line at 12750
• Break there would be Bearish
• 50 DMA (12,350) and 100 DMA (11,800) would be next lines of support

Vix

• Vix starting to break out
• Market could be in for a sell off ahead
• Break above 18 on the Vix would be bullish
• Break above 21 would be very bullish

Unemployment (Why It Is Going Down)

Not In Labor Force

• This is a chart you do not want to see go up
• Here is the main reason Unemployment is going down
• Less people in the work force = less people unemployed

Bulls Still Holding

DJ-30

• Still In Smaller Bull Fork
• Break below 13150 would start to be bearish
• Break below 13000 could be send DJ-30 back to 12000

Insiders Are Selling Like Mad

• High amount of insider selling (Bearish)
• Something to keep an eye on
• Short Term Correction Could Be In Play
• However if the Fed keeps up with money injections in the market = Higher Highs
• Only thing that would derail this would be Europe starts to fall apart, again.
• But the Fed is also buying Euro Bonds
• Have trailing stops in place

DJ-30 Holds In Bull Fork & China

DJ-30

• DJ-30 Holds Strong In Bull Fork Due to Hints of QE3!
• Bull Case
• Holds In Smaller Bull Fork To New Market Highs
• Bear Case 
• Break Below 13000 Would Break Smaller Bull Fork

Bullish on China?  Think again?

SP-500 Hitting The Top of Range (Bearish)

Weekly SP-500

• SP-500 Is Hitting The Top of The Bull Fork (Bearish)
• Bear Case
• Break below 1360 would break the Mid-line
• Bull Case
• Break Above 1420 would be bullish in the short term
• RSI is showing very overbought (Bearish)
• MACD is also close to hitting the end of the trend as well (Bearish)
• HAVE STOPS IN PLACE!

GLD, EUR, And A Heads Up

GLD - Weekly

• GLD Breaking Back Into Bull Fork
• Break Below 169 Would Be Bearish
• Would Use That As A Stop Out
• Break Above 180 Would Be Bullish
• New Highs Would Soon Follow

EUR - Weekly

• EUR Still In Bearish Fork
• Break Above 1.34 Would Start To be Bullish
• If The EUR Breaks Out The Over All Market Will Follow

Not Buying It...

• Market Breaking Higher but Not The Financial Credit
• Something to Keep An Eye On
• Have Stops In Place

Push Move To New Highs OR MARKET CRASH

DJ-30 Weekly

• Bull Are Eating All The Bears Lunches
• For The Bulls
• Break Above 13,250 Would Kill Double Top Theory
• Next Stop above 13,250 would be TO ALL TIME NEW HIGHS (Thank You FED)
• For The Bears
• Break Below 12,700 Would Start To Be Bearish
• Next Stop Below 12,000 Would Be Very Bearish

SP-500 Weekly

• SP-500 Tells Different Story Then DJ-30
• Market Is Very Over Bought And Has Almost Gone Straight Up Since Bottom of The Bear Fork
• For The Bulls
• Break Above 1372 Could Send Market To New Highs
• For The Bears
• Need To Break Back Down Into Bear Fork = 1275

Lets Look At A Market Driver = AAPL

AAPL Weekly

• Would Short Near $620 - Yes It could Jump 100 points in a few weeks!
• Looks A Lot Like ( http://bearhatorbullhat.blogspot.com/2011/05/slv.html)

Take Away - Market Will Either Rally To New Highs Or Have A Sharp Down Turn.  Either Way - HAVE STOPS IN PLACE.

Time To Sell?

To Bullish?

• Market Is VERY OVERBOUGHT Short Term
• Break Below 1315 Bearish
• Break Above 1339 VERY Bullish
• Next Level Would Be Around 1371

Is The Biggest Bear About To Come Out?

• If The Market Can Not Break To New Highs = Trouble
• Hold On, Will Be A Fun Ride Either Way

No Mater what takes place this year BEST BUY IS DOOMED!

• Consumer is hurting
• Will do most shopping online
• If you are long BBY (HAVE STOPS IN)